2020 National Popular Vote Tracker. By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky. Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. David Wasserman is the U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report. Dave Wasserman on Twitter: 'Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever.' The latest tweets from @daveweigel.

Medias and Tweets on @Redistrict ( Dave Wasserman )' s Twitter Profile.Washington, DC Washington, DC U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report & @NBCNews contributor. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, 📈 data, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes.

Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman has seen enough.

The data expert called the Georgia runoff election for Democrat Raphael Warnock, who he says will defeat Republican Kelly Loeffler. The call came early, as Georgia’s senate runoff elections are tight and have yet to be called by major outlets.

As political watchers have zeroed in on the special elections, Wasserman provided extensive analysis throughout the evening on where Warnock and Jon Ossoff would need to excel in order to defeat Loeffler and David Perdue.

The top 10 GA counties w/ 10k+ voters where Dems underperformed Biden by the most in November’s Loeffler special:

1. Hart -2.1%

2. Oconee -2.1%

3. Stephens -1.9%

4. Forsyth -1.7%

5. Greene -1.7%

6. Glynn -1.6%

7. Thomas -1.6%

8. Columbia -1.6%

9. Fulton -1.5%

10. Catoosa -1.5%

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 5, 2021

When the election results came in, he focused on multiple counties where Democrats seemed to be over performing, or where Republicans seemed to be underperforming:

Dave Wasserman Twitter

Lanier Co. (rural south GA) looks done:

Perdue 2,122-902 (+40.4)

Loeffler 2,121-907 (+40.0)

Trump (Nov.) 2,509-1,019 (+41.7)

And that’s only 86% of November turnout, so if that’s fully counted, that’s great news for Dems.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Pulaski Co. (rural south GA) looks done:

Perdue 2,546-1,105 (+39.4)

Loeffler 2,524-1,126 (+38.4)

Trump (Nov.) 2,815-1,230 (+38.9)

Perdue/Loeffler running about even with Trump here, but turnout is just 90.3% of November levels. Dems could plausibly beat that in ATL.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Franklin Co. looks to be first deep red North GA county to fully report:

Perdue +70.8

Loeffler +70.8

Trump (Nov.) +69.4

But the bad news for Rs: runoff turnout is only at 86.1% of November levels. That might not cut it.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Washington Co. (rural central GA, racially polarized) looks fully reported:

Warnock +3.0

Ossoff +2.4

Kyle Kondik Twitter

Biden (November) +0.7

And turnout is at 90.6% of November levels. These are great numbers for both Dems.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

This eventually led to Wasserman expressing his view that “Republicans have a turnout problem,” and that might say something about President Donald Trump’s limits in getting people out to vote while he’s not on the ballot:

What we saw in 2018: plenty of Trump voters just won’t turn out without Trump on the ballot. Are we seeing history repeat itself tonight? So far, yes.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

It turns out when your coalition depends so much on one person (Donald Trump) driving turnout, there are some big downside risks when that person isn’t on the ballot.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Wasserman’s breakdown of the vote grew increasingly favorable toward Democrats with the emphasis that Loeffler’s re-election bid seemed to be waning.

Here’s the story right now:

1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal.

2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn’t anything special.

Dave Wasserman Twitter Post

3. It’s getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler.

Dave Wasserman Tweets

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

Dave Wasserman Cook Political Report

Inevitably, he reached the point where he was prepared to prematurely declare Warnock’s triumph:

I’ve seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA’s special Senate runoff. #GASEN

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

The election has yet to be determined, so Twitter slapped his tweet with a warning label to highlight this fact. Even so, Wasserman seems to be accepting this rather well:

Fair enough! The label is accurate. https://t.co/T7JTNgKtJI

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 6, 2021

The post BREAKING: Cook Political's Dave Wasserman Calls Georgia Runoff For Democrat Raphael Warnock first appeared on Mediaite.